Bitcoin (BTC) was capable of see its strongest six-month efficiency in historical past within the second half of 2025, pushed by a report influx of ETFs, coverage dangers to the Federal Reserve, and elevated adoption of sovereignty.

In a July 2nd analysis notice, Kendrick predicted that ETF inflows and company finance ministry purchases would exceed the second quarter degree of 245,000 BTC in each the third and fourth quarters.

Lenders maintained their earlier forecast that Bitcoin had reached $200,000 by the tip of the yr, and up to date Bitcoin’s third quarter outlook with a worth forecast of $135,000.

He added that Bitcoin ETF flows are already elevating expectations and the market is starting to understand that post-harving worth patterns for crypto stay intact regardless of earlier questions.

Coverage Tail, Sovereignty Buy

Kendrick additionally highlighted that along with the surge in purchases, the market faces an elevated danger to the independence of the Federal Reserve.

In response to Kendrick:

“The ETF influx and the Treasury movement of companies are all US policy-related.”

Additional boosting the outlook for Bitcoin is the passing of the US Genius Act, which not too long ago secured Senate approval. Normal Chartered famous that such legal guidelines would improve the readability of rules, promote wider adoption, and additional combine Crypto into the normal monetary system.

Kendrick additionally predicted a rise within the adoption of Bitcoin sovereignty, saying that proof of national-level purchases would help long-term demand and worth stability, just like the affect seen from the buildup of the Company Treasury in current months.

Half cycle concept is over

The memo additionally addresses market considerations in regards to the half cycle of Bitcoin, an occasion scheduled each 4 years, slicing mining compensation in half and traditionally affecting worth patterns.

Kendrick defined that within the earlier cycle, Bitcoin costs fell about 18 months after Harving.

Nevertheless, Normal Chartered believes the dynamics have modified. Kendrick writes {that a} issue that isn’t current in earlier cycles, due to a robust inflow of ETFs and the acquisition of the Ministry of Company Treasury, may keep away from Bitcoin’s typical post-harving decline.

He stated that costs are more likely to be risky from late September to early October because the market focuses on this historic sample, however predicted that the upward pattern will resume on the finish of the yr, pushed by these new structural demand components.

Kendrick concluded that the approaching months will reveal how Bitcoin has labored past the earlier half-cycle habits.

“Buckle up.”

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