• Solana maintains a multi-year trendline at $136, however analyst Ari Chart warns {that a} breakout might set off a fall to $50.
  
• Morgan Stanley has filed for a Solana ETF with staking, becoming a member of the wave of institutional traders who’ve pushed property in SOL merchandise to greater than $1 billion.
  
• The cellular token launch is scheduled for January twenty first, with 20% of the provision allotted to customers, a basic set off amid technical uncertainty.
  

Solana worth is buying and selling round $136 at this time because the token checks the uptrend line that has supported the value since 2024. The extent is essential as Morgan Stanley’s newest ETF submitting accelerates adoption by institutional traders, whereas analyst Ali Charts warns {that a} chapter might ship SOL towards $50.

Morgan Stanley joins the Solana ETF race

Morgan Stanley this week filed an utility for a Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana exchange-traded fund, marking the corporate’s first foray into crypto ETF merchandise. Solana’s utility features a staking aspect, permitting traders to earn yield from their holdings.

The transfer comes after Solana ETF’s whole property underneath administration exceeded $1 billion in early January. Bitwise’s BSOL topped the listing with $681 million, adopted by Grayscale’s GSOL with $170 million and Constancy’s FSOL with $125 million. These merchandise have recorded consecutive weeks of web inflows since their launch in late 2025.

Institutional adoption offers a basic backstop, however worth traits point out the market stays centered on technical buildings. SOL didn’t recuperate the EMA cluster between $153 and $164, and the uptrend line grew to become the final line of protection towards additional correction.

Cell token launch provides near-term catalyst

Solana Cell has confirmed that the SKR token launch date is January twenty first, with 20 p.c of the full provide allotted to eligible customers and builders. This airdrop targets early adopters of Solana Cell’s Saga and Chapter Two units and rewards members in driving the ecosystem’s {hardware} ahead.

The launch comes at a pivotal second for costs. If the pattern line holds and SOL rebounds earlier than January twenty first, token distribution momentum might be amplified as recipients have interaction with the broader Solana ecosystem. If the trendline breaks first, airdrops turn out to be secondary to technical harm management.

Analysts say trendline break goal is $50

Solana costs are presently driving instantly on the uptrend line that has supported the rally since early 2024. Analyst Ari Chart emphasised the significance of this degree and stated {that a} breakout might take SOL to $50.

The graph reveals:

• 20-day EMA: $155.51
• 50-day EMA: $163.90
• 100-day EMA: $153.31
• 200-day EMA: $118.61
• RSI: 41.49

SOL is buying and selling beneath the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all of that are presently appearing as resistance. The 200-day EMA of $118.61 is nicely beneath the present worth, indicating that the long-term pattern is undamaged regardless of the current weak spot.

The weekly RSI is 41.49, reflecting impartial momentum with a bearish pattern. Value has examined the pattern line a number of instances over the previous few months, and every check has resulted in a pullback. This time, a mix of analyst warnings and a weak EMA construction have elevated the danger of failure.

Brief-term chart reveals consolidation on the pattern line

The 4-hour timeframe reveals SOL consolidating between $133 and $137. The supertrend indicator is at $133.36, indicating rapid assist. Parabolic SAR reads $135.00, confirming that the pattern has shifted to impartial after the current decline.

For the construction to show bullish, consumers must recuperate $140. If this occurs, the value will transfer above the SAR, paving the way in which to retest the $144-$148 resistance zone. A loss at $133 confirms a break within the trendline and sure accelerates the sell-off in the direction of $125, with $118 being the following main assist.

Quantity through the consolidation was modest, which is typical earlier than a decisive transfer. A breakout or breakout determines whether or not inflows from institutional traders present sufficient assist to maintain the construction, or if technical promoting predominates.

Outlook: Will Solana Rise?

The setup is binary. If SOL holds the trendline and closes above $140 with quantity, the chart will return to restoration mode. If the value recovers to $153, the bearish setting will probably be invalidated and the goal will probably be $164.If the SKR launch features momentum, we are able to count on additional upside in the direction of $180.

If the value falls by $133 and breaks out of the pattern line, this transfer will verify the warning from Ali Chart. This results in an preliminary forecast of $118, however a deeper draw back in the direction of $100-$90 if panic promoting prevails.

Maintaining $133 will preserve the construction intact. Shedding this prompts the $50 goal state of affairs.