• Polymarket odds that the US acquires Greenland rose from 7% to greater than 21% in two weeks.
• Kalsi signifies there’s a 46% likelihood that Trump will seize components of Greenland.
• President Trump tied Greenland to direct tariffs, and the market is presently unstable.

The market not treats Greenland as a joke commerce. In polymarkets, contracts asking whether or not the US will management Greenland by 2027 rose to about 21-22% this week from 7-8% firstly of the yr.

The deal consists of greater than $14 million, making it one of many largest energetic bets on the platform. Prior to now two weeks, two massive wallets have seen a complete improve of about $300,000 in funds on the “Sure” aspect, every securing a possible payout of practically $750,000 if the outcomes are successful.

Kalsi tells totally different tales alongside the identical strains. The percentages are effectively above the polymarket at practically 46%, with little change from the earlier week. This hole will not be about seriousness, however quite factors to a disagreement over timing and authorized course of. Merchants are not pricing this in as a zero chance.

Tariffs flip politics right into a catalyst for commerce

President Trump imposed direct tariffs on Greenland. The ten% tariffs on items from eight European nations will start on February 1st and rise to 25% in June until there’s a take care of Greenland. Polymarket exhibits Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK and France have a 40% likelihood of dealing with new tariffs subsequent month. That is not summary geopolitics, however an outdated macro set off.

Europe’s response stays defensive. EU nations have joined Denmark in suspending commerce negotiations and making ready retaliatory measures concentrating on companies and finance, the place the US has a surplus.

European allies rally behind Denmark

Greenland has turn out to be a spotlight of NATO’s Arctic posture, with a number of European allies sending small navy groups to take part in Danish-led workouts. Though the deployment is basically symbolic and includes restricted personnel, Denmark continues to take major accountability by its Arctic Power, which numbers round 100 to 150 folks. Different NATO allies have additionally despatched liaison officers or are contemplating becoming a member of amid broader Arctic safety considerations.

Commerce pressures are including to the burden, with tariffs already in place and better tiers anticipated later this yr. Europe lacks the navy energy to instantly change U.S. help, and it’s estimated that filling the hole will price practically $1 trillion over the long run. This weak point strengthens the US negotiating place and retains the Greenland timeline alive out there.

Apparently, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen mentioned Europe wouldn’t be “blackmailed” into surrendering. He added that strengthening Arctic safety as a typical curiosity throughout the Atlantic is a precedence.

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