Cryptoquant Analyst Crypto Dan has launched a brand new report detailing the present 2024-2025 cryptocurrency bull market cycle and the way it branches out from the earlier bull run. His evaluation reveals that enormous market members deliberately ease worth surges and lengthen the general period of the rally. This conduct he calls “synthetic market suppression” is in distinction to the extra natural, market-driven revisions noticed in the course of the bullish cycles of 2017 and 2021.

Crypto Dan’s report states that in early 2024, main cryptocurrencies skilled a fast rise. Bitcoin peaked at over $80,000 by mid-November 2024, from just below $40,000 in late February 2024. Ethereum rose from round $2,300 in February 2024 to just about $4,800 over the identical interval. Throughout this era, many small altcoins recorded income of over 200%. Nonetheless, not like previous cycles the place worth changes had been comparatively drawn, these gatherings had been quickly adopted by a sudden pullback.

Betcoin costs fell by about 30% between mid-November 2024 and late November 2024. Altcoins declined even sharply, with many tokens dropping 40% to 60% of their worth. Somewhat than rolling out a couple of months of integration part, massive stakeholders apparently carried out a fast sale on the first indication of overheating and re-accumulated positions at cheaper price ranges. In line with Crypto Dan, this sample was repeated twice within the present cycle. The primary was from March to November 2024, and once more from January to April 2025.

Comparability with the 2017 and 2021 cycle

Within the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin costs peaked at practically $20,000 in December 2017, adopted by a withdrawn revision that lasted for about eight months. Altcoins quickly surged to a number of hundred {dollars} per token, which collapsed greater than 90% in the course of the adjustment. Market members on the time had been primarily responding to the fast rise of retail buyers and media consideration. Modifications throughout that cycle had been pushed not by coordinated interventions however by common adjustments in revenue acquisition, regulatory uncertainty, and sentiment.

Throughout the Bull Cycle in 2021, costs escalated sharply between late 2020 and early 2021, with Bitcoin reaching round $64,000 in April 2021. Nonetheless, coupled with the onset of the Covid-19 delta wave and considerations over regulatory measures and US tax steering in China, triggered an prolonged adjustment that was prolonged over 5022. For a number of months, and the altcoins skilled comparable or better declines. The droop was progressively responding largely to evolving exterior situations.

In distinction, the 2024-2025 cycle had no lengthy market-driven modifications. With every worth spike, massive holders stepped in virtually instantly, pushing again costs by way of focused promote orders. These fast pullbacks often lasted only some weeks earlier than strain reappeared. Consequently, regardless of a number of short-lived recessions, the general bull pattern continues uninterrupted.

Proof of strategic market moderation

Crypto Dan factors out some on-chain metrics as proof of this “synthetic suppression.” First, Bitcoin revenue and loss realization information in the course of the November 2024 pullback confirmed a spike to e-book the income of short-term holders. In earlier cycles, such spikes would have marked the start of some months of decline. As an alternative, institutional, rich patrons have dipped, absorbing sell-side liquidity and avoiding worth ranges even additional down.

Second, the web circulation of alternate (measuring cash shifting inside and outdoors of alternate) seems to point the buildup sample after every modification. When Bitcoin fell under $65,000 in late November 2024, the big influx into the chilly wallets exchanged was rapidly offset by the leak into the personal establishment’s wallets. This means that deep pocket members are making ready to tackle new positions quite than withdrawing from the market.

Third, the derivatives market is behaving in another way in 2024 and 2025. The financing fee for everlasting futures contracts is often adverse if many merchants maintain lengthy positions and are quickly immersed in the course of the revision however get better inside a couple of days. Funding charges haven’t plummeted to ranges traditionally associated to the liquidation cascade. Within the pullback from January to April 2025, Bitcoin funding fee fell to the underside of practically -0.02% per 8 hours, however in 2017 and 2021, comparable recessions fell under -0.10% per 8 hours. In line with Crypto Dan, this muted response to funding signifies that leveraged longs had been protected against mass liquidation by adjusted purchases.

Altcoin efficiency decline and market sentiment

In each main revision phases, Altcoins didn’t persistently carry out Bitcoin from March to November 2024 to January to April 2025. Bitcoin declines ranged from 30% to 35%, however many Altcoin tokens fell by greater than 50%. As Altcoins are likely to mirror retail and speculative income, this disparity has closely weighed on the sentiment of the market as a complete. Nonetheless, the relative stability of Bitcoin has prevented widespread panic amongst system holders.

A survey of social media feelings and code-centric chat rooms noticed a surge in adverse feelings on the top of every pullback. Nonetheless, these instances of pessimism had been short-lived. Inside 2-3 weeks of Trough, at Altcoin costs, the sentiment indicator returns to a degree per average bullishness, suggesting that retailers are rapidly seeing every drop as a purchase order alternative. Crypto Dan’s evaluation reveals that behind the scenes, key members had been adjusting their restoration by inserting massive buy orders at key help ranges.

The anticipated bubble-like climax

Based mostly on historic patterns and present on-chain information, Crypto Dan predicts that this bull cycle will finish in a outstanding bubble-like part characterised by excessive inference and full-scale analysis. He factors out that sure metrics, comparable to the share of Bitcoin held in lower than a month, have already reached ranges seen close to earlier cycle peaks. Within the fourth quarter of 2024, round 36% of Bitcoin within the circulation moved inside the final 30 days, a basic signal of speculative enthusiasm.

Open curiosity in derivatives additionally hit highs. In March 2025, public curiosity on Bitcoin futures contracts exceeded $40 billion, exceeding the height recorded in 2021. The funding fee was quickly adverse in early March 2025, however not like the earlier cycle, large-scale liquidation was averted. Consequently, leverage continues to be constructed inside the system. Crypto Dan warns that if Bitcoin costs fall under $60,000, the liquidation threat may develop into extreme sufficient to trigger a fast, disorderly decline.

He additionally factors out that some altcoins are already buying and selling at unprecedented scores in comparison with earlier cycle highs. The mayor’s small tokens noticed multiples of the north worth, ten instances the height of the second half of 2021. This focus of speculative capital in a extremely leveraged, low-liquid market may amplify the volatility of the present bull run remaining leg.

Institutional impacts and market dynamics

One of the vital variations between the 2024-2025 cycles is the extent of institutional involvement. The 2017 bull noticed early entrances for a number of funds primarily with retail members and within the 2021 cycle, however at present’s market consists of hedge funds, the Ministry of Finance for Corporates, and a classy algorithmic buying and selling desk. In line with Crypto Dan, these actors have each capital and technical refinement, and are shopping for and promoting rapidly, centering on any worth surge.

Such a tuned motion successfully flattened what would in any other case have been an extended repair. It’s reported that main crypto-centric funds have an inner threat committee that enforces the most important drawdown limits. As soon as these limits are reached, the buying and selling desk is allowed to deploy capital to help the value. Then again, on-chain information reveals that billions of {dollars} of billions of {dollars} of funds accumulate Bitcoin and select massive altcoins at every dip. In doing in order that they maintained the ground underneath costs, stopping a notable sale.

Influence on retail buyers

For retail members, the present setting has each alternatives and dangers. Repeated fast pullbacks supplied a set of low enter factors, and plenty of retailers have used these dips to ascertain or improve positions. As a result of the revision is brief, retail sentiment stays comparatively bullish. A number of retail-oriented exchanges have reported inflow of recent consumer deposits after every pullback, suggesting that newcomers view every view as a purchase order alternative quite than a warning signal.

However a climactic outlook just like the bubble raises considerations. Earlier cycles (significantly within the late 2017 and early 2018, retail buyers who entered the height have suffered important losses within the subsequent naked market. Within the present cycle, there could also be an extended interval of worth stability that reduces the underlying threat, as institutional gamers maintain massive positions and make use of methods to handle downward pressures. As soon as the ultimate sense of well-being begins, valuations can overshoot affordable ranges with a extra respectable margin than earlier than, leading to much more sharp drawdowns when the bubble inevitably bursts.

Anticipated timeline and key indicators

Crypto Dan’s report means that the Bull Cycle, which started in earnest in January 2023, is more likely to attain its climax between the second quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2025.

• Quick-term Bitcoin holdings: Traditionally, sustained reads above 30% have marked the highest of the market. This metric exceeded 36% on the finish of 2024 and hovered close to that degree till early June 2025.
• Derivatives are opening up curiosity: As of early June 2025, public curiosity on Bitcoin futures was over $35 billion. The fast escalation above $45 billion may point out an imminent surge in speculative leverage.
• Alternate Stubcoin Reserve: If the Stablecoin stability on main exchanges exceeds a sure threshold ($150 billion on all main platforms), then key buying energy means that onstanders are poised. As of Could 2025, Stablecoin reserves had been practically $140 billion inside the notable distance of this historic benchmark.
• Excessive funding fee: If the financing fee for a everlasting contract is decisively moved by 0.05% per 8 hours, it signifies that the lengthy place is overcrowded and units a possible liquidation stage.

Crypto Dan information reveals that the funding fee averages round 0.03% per 8 hours in the newest interval (Could 2025). An extra improve in these charges may point out that retail and institutional members are loaded into leveraged positions at equally unsustainable paces.