• Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will attain its cycle peak within the fourth quarter of 2025.
• The analyst warns that there may very well be a market correction in 2026, in step with previous medium-term declines.
• Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana might briefly rally earlier than broader weak point units in.

Crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin might attain its subsequent main cycle peak in late 2025, earlier than getting into a hunch in 2026. He mentioned historic knowledge from previous market cycles exhibits repeating patterns that traders mustn’t ignore.

Bitcoin historic cycle sample

In an interview with Altcoin Each day, Cowen defined that Bitcoin’s efficiency over the previous decade has adopted a constant cycle. He famous that traditionally massive peaks have occurred within the fourth quarter after U.S. presidential election years in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

“Primarily based on historic patterns, late 2025 is in step with the subsequent potential excessive,” Cowen mentioned. “There’s usually a interval of market reset within the following 12 months, normally in the midst of the 12 months.”

He cited 2014, 2018, and 2022 as examples of post-peak declines, the place Bitcoin plummeted from a excessive earlier than getting into a brand new accumulation part.

Market indicators help the outlook

Cowen cited a number of technical indicators to help his prediction. He highlighted that Bitcoin’s dominance index has not too long ago elevated to round 66%, indicating that Bitcoin continues to outperform most various cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin’s rise in dominance sometimes signifies that the broader crypto market isn’t in full risk-on mode,” he mentioned. “This implies capital is consolidated in essentially the most established belongings.”

He added that the 50-week transferring common, at the moment close to $100,000, serves as an vital help stage. He mentioned that so long as Bitcoin stays above this stage, the upward momentum might proceed. Nevertheless, a sustained drop beneath that might point out that the market has hit a ceiling.

Curiosity in retail stays sluggish

Regardless of Bitcoin buying and selling close to all-time highs, particular person participation within the cryptocurrency market stays low, Cowen noticed. He mentioned search knowledge and social media exercise associated to cryptocurrencies has declined sharply since 2021, suggesting restricted enthusiasm amongst retailers.

“This is among the quietest markets close to the highest that we have ever seen,” he mentioned. “Whereas that is uncommon, it’s in step with the broader concept that declining revenues and slowing cycles are characterizing this period.”

Outlook for Ethereum and Solana

Cowen expects Ethereum to rise once more earlier than the present cycle ends, with the value probably reaching $5,000 to $7,000. Nevertheless, he warned that Ethereum might additionally face a major decline in 2026 if the general market weakens.

He in contrast the early market traits of Solana and Ethereum and mentioned Solana might proceed to rise for a number of extra months earlier than following the same correction sample. “It’s going like a delayed model of Ethereum’s final cycle,” Cowen mentioned.

broader financial elements

Cowen mentioned the Federal Reserve’s financial coverage will play a key position in shaping the subsequent part of the crypto market. So long as rates of interest stay excessive and liquidity is restricted, speculative belongings equivalent to cryptocurrencies could discover it troublesome to take care of long-term returns.

He famous that the Fed’s extra accommodative stance from 2026 onwards might help a brand new wave of market development, however urged traders to be cautious for now. “Whereas fundamentals are bettering, historical past exhibits that costs don’t essentially transfer in sync with fundamentals,” he mentioned.

long run perspective

Though Cowen stays cautious within the quick time period, his long-term outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. He believes belongings might finally attain $1 million by 2041 if historic development traits proceed.

He concluded by urging traders to depend on knowledge moderately than emotion. “Each cycle has a rhythm,” Cowen says. “The secret’s to acknowledge the market earlier than it turns.”

Associated: https://currencyjournals.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-breakdown-deepens-and-98500-comes-into-play/