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BTC/USD Forex Signal

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Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bullish price action when the price reached $7,676 that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time today, during the next 24-hour period only.

Long Trades

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,620 or $6,440.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $7,351 or $7,461.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I had no directional bias last Thursday, beyond noting that a sustained break above $7,825 would be a key bullish sign. The break never came, and the price has fallen very heavily, getting close to a key support level at $6,620. My chart did suggest the price could fall a long way once it broke below $7,351. The price is stabilizing close to $6,620 which might hold, but there is no question that the price is in a long-term downwards trend and is now very close to its lowest prices of 2018. The price is down about 70% since September. The Bitcoin bulls who were crowing a few months ago about how Bitcoin was the future still haven’t completely given up but are much quieter. It is very, very dangerous for traders to get emotionally attached to assets the way many have got attached to Bitcoin. I even saw one enthusiast tweet a few days ago that Bitcoin still hasn’t had a losing calendar year! Well its June now, and the price is down by about 50% since January the first, is that bearish enough???

I have a bearish bias below $6,620 but it looks increasingly likely that this support level will hold for a while. Be extremely careful before taking any long trade from this level.

There is nothing due today concerning the USD.

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