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What's Next For Bitcoin: $14000 Or $1600?

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Investors are aching to see some kind of a meaningful trend emerging for Bitcoin. But the only thing that you can see from the Bitcoin price for the past few months is just a sideway movement and a narrow range. Since February 2018, we have marked a high of $11,784 and low $5,922 and ever since, we have been trading in this range. In fact, most recently, from April 6 until today, the range is even narrower; $6,513 to $9,795.

Source: Bloomberg, ThinkMarkets, @NaeemAslam

Bitcoin moving in a narrow range

The average true range, five-day exponential, has dropped to its lowest level of $231 for this year. Since the start of this year, the dominant trend for this has been skewed to the downside.

Similarly, the 90-day volatility index has also taken a nose dive and it is almost in a free fall. I do think this is about to change, because, firstly; we have started to trade in a narrow range- not normal for the Bitcoin price, finally, the 90-day volatility is in a free. Bitcoin isn’t an animal which can be put on a leash that easily.

Source: Bloomberg, ThinkMarkets, @NaeemAslam23

ATR and 90-daily volatility is at a critical level

It may be premature to say that the bottom is firmly in place because in order for that to happen, we would need to break the price level of $10,000. Given that we have a symmetrical triangle formed on a daily time frame and we are moving closer toward the capitulation end, the upward breakout could start a new trend that could push the price toward $13,982 and a downward move could project the price towards $1,292.

Source: Bloomberg, ThinkMarkets, @NaeemAslam23

Bitcoin’s upward price projection at 13801 and downward at 1967

It is important to state, that usually, these patterns do not play out this clean but the price does choose to sit near enough the price projections.

Disclosure: I own Bitcoin in my wallet.

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