• Gold units new file as Bitcoin falls by practically $105,000 on blended danger flows
• Ricardo Salinas predicted $1.516 million BTC as capital turnover story builds
• BTC to gold ratio to be watched for restoration after key trendline breakdown

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Priego is betting that Bitcoin (BTC) must rise 14 occasions, or to $1.516 billion, to match gold’s new $30 trillion market cap. Ricardo Salinas’ daring $1.5 million guess on Bitcoin paid off, because the BTC worth at the moment is buying and selling round $105,522, down 5% previously 24 hours.

That is in sharp distinction to gold (XAU), which simply hit a brand new all-time excessive of $4,380. Regardless of the short-term chart favoring metals, the 14x hole highlights a long-term guess on capital turnover.

Why a $1.5 million Bitcoin guess issues at the moment

Salinas Priego, who reportedly has 70% of his funding portfolio with Bitcoin publicity, has set a goal of $1.516 million because the minimal worth wanted for Bitcoin to achieve parity with gold. His calculations come as gold lately secured a market capitalization of $30 trillion.

The billionaire predicts this 14x transfer will happen over the following 12 months, with BTC anticipated to outperform within the ensuing bull market. Nevertheless, this long-term thesis faces harsh realities within the quick time period.

Associated: BTC, XRP, BNB, ADA file double-digit weekly losses as ‘risk-off’ deepens

Value evaluation: BTC vs. Gold (BTC/XAU)

Salinas is betting on Bitcoin, and up to date market developments favor it. Gold (XAU) roughly rose 64% year-to-datepeaked at round $4,380 on October seventeenth, then settled at $4,310.

Bitcoin moved in the wrong way. BTC worth fell greater than 5% in the identical 24-hour interval, briefly hitting a variety low of $103,598 earlier than discovering help close to $105,522. The decline introduced Bitcoin’s market cap right down to $2.1 trillion, but it surely nonetheless outpaced main shares corresponding to Meta Platforms and Saudi Aramco.

ranges and construction

Technical evaluation of the BTC/XAU pair means that the trail to $1.5 million faces some fast hurdles. The pair, which represents Bitcoin’s worth relative to gold, lately fell under a key logarithmic upward help trendline that has held since January 2024.

This breakdown follows a triple rejection on the 36.16 resistance degree and coincides with the pair’s 2021 all-time excessive. The chart construction at present factors to a attainable Head and Shoulders (H&S) high, which is a basic bearish reversal sample.

momentum

Momentum indicators help the near-term bearish case for Bitcoin versus gold. The day by day Relative Energy Index (RSI) reveals a transparent bearish divergence, indicating that the earlier uptrend was weakening earlier than breaking the help line. For Salinas’ 12-month bullish state of affairs to play out, the BTC/XAU pair would first have to reverse this breakdown and regain multi-year logarithmic help.

What adjustments the following path?

The primary driver of the long-term aim of $1.5 million rests on accelerating capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin. The important thing to this paper is for long-term traders and authorities establishments to extend their BTC allocation.

This development contains the US authorities, which at present holds roughly 198,000 BTC in strategic reserves, valued at over $20.8 billion. Governments have beforehand embraced Bitcoin as a retailer of worth and a hedge towards inflation and nationwide debt.

Associated: Bitcoin This autumn setup: $100,000 first, $88,000 danger, $125,000 breakout units new data