• Santiment: Excessive crowd curiosity in shopping for the push is a traditional contrarian bearish sign.
• Forward of immediately’s FOMC determination, a $512 million liquidation cascade of principally longs hit the market.
• CryptoQuant: Lengthy-term Bitcoin holders bought 325,600 BTC previously 30 days.

Santiment information evaluation reveals that the medium-term crypto market ache might not be over but. Tuesday’s slight market decline resulted in additional than $512 million in liquidations from leveraged merchants. In response, Santimento information now reveals excessive curiosity in “shopping for on the spur of the second” among the many crowd.

Santiment warns there might be extra ache earlier than the ultimate rebound. Traditionally, a lot of bullish purchase calls are a contrarian indicator. This sample is commonly preceded by a light short-term retrace, adopted by additional draw back strain.

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“As soon as their (the group’s) optimism (FOMO) turns to concern (FUD), that is whenever you see the most important backlash,” Santimento mentioned.

Why medium-term cryptocurrency retrace is more likely to happen when fundamentals are sturdy

Market is weak forward of FOMC assembly

Hours earlier than immediately’s October twenty ninth Fed rate of interest determination, the crypto market is displaying medium-term bearish sentiment. Though Polymarket and Calci have greater than 97% likelihood of a 25bps charge reduce, market uncertainty stays.

The Fed’s QT is more likely to finish on Wednesday, which is able to in the end be good for shares and crypto markets, in line with Tom Lee. In the meantime, macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from ongoing tariff and commerce negotiations amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine raises considerations of additional draw back dangers.

Chance of Fed charge reduce and impression of reports promoting after Spot Alts ETF itemizing

The cryptocurrency market is more likely to enter bearish territory within the medium time period as a consequence of typical news-induced promoting. Specifically, the crypto market’s bullish momentum could quickly weaken because the Fed begins its 25bps rate of interest reduce, QT ends, and spot altcoin trade traded funds (ETFs) proceed to be listed.

Notably, a number of altcoins, together with Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and Hederaz (HBAR), have been listed as their respective spot ETFs after the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) accredited widespread itemizing requirements previous to the continuing authorities shutdown.

Influence of lengthy squeeze amidst low demand for whales

Roughly $354 million was concerned with lengthy merchants after greater than $512 million was liquidated previously 24 hours. As such, intermediate-term leveraged patrons could flip bearish to trip the bearish wave, which can lead to additional draw back momentum.

Demand for crypto belongings by whale institutional buyers has decreased considerably in latest days. For instance, the U.S. Spot BTC ETF has recorded constructive money inflows over the previous few days, however this has declined considerably in comparison with earlier this 12 months.

In response to CryptoQuant’s on-chain information evaluation, long-term Bitcoin holders have outflowed 325,600 BTC previously 30 days.

Notably, that is the steepest month-to-month drawdown since July 2025, thus additional weighing on the medium-term crypto bullish development.

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