• Timothy Peterson’s market simulation reveals that there’s a 50% probability that Bitcoin will attain $140,000 in October.
• Bitcoin has not too long ago reached $126,000 and wishes a 14.7% enhance to succeed in $140,000.
• Nevertheless, different analysts level out {that a} short-term response might happen earlier than potential sustained advantages.

Economist Timothy Peterson predicted that Bitcoin might attain $140,000 by the tip of October, citing a data-driven simulation that reveals that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has a 50% probability of closing in a month that surpasses its mark.

The evaluation is predicated on greater than a decade of Bitcoin’s historic value traits, suggesting that half of the potential rise in cryptocurrency in October might already be occurring.

Predictions primarily based on knowledge moderately than guesses

Peterson’s predictions shared on X on October 7, 2025 had been primarily based on “tons of of simulations” utilizing each day value knowledge for Bitcoin since 2015.

“There is a 50% probability that Bitcoin will finish the month above $140,000,” he wrote, including that there is a 43% probability that it’ll finish under $136,000.

Peterson mentioned the prediction is only statistical and never influenced by sentiment or subjective opinions.

He emphasised that the outcomes had been “primarily based on purely actual knowledge, not human feelings or biased opinions,” and had been designed to replicate Bitcoin’s historic volatility and cyclical rhythms.

On the time of his evaluation, Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $122,000, a bit chilly after hitting an all-time excessive of $126,200 at the start of the week.

To achieve $140,000, it could require an increase of round 14.7% from present ranges, however this transfer is roughly in keeping with Bitcoin’s common October efficiency over the previous decade.

Based on previous CoinGlass knowledge, October was Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, normally bringing an increase of round 20.75%.

The historic significance of October for Bitcoin

“Bitcoin efficiency in October is not going to be ‘set’ by September, however might be set all year long,” Peterson defined.

Bitcoin efficiency in October is about all year long moderately than “setting” by September.

This graph plots the returns from January to September and October since 2015. The upper Bitcoin performs over the primary 9 months, the upper the October return. In October… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025

The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal energy to broader monetary patterns, together with the tip of the third quarter portfolio rebalance, the graduation of fiscal yr plans, and the method to funding fund year-end reporting counters.

He prompt that these elements create situations favorable for brand spanking new capital inflows into Bitcoin and different dangerous property.

Whereas Peterson’s mannequin offers a probability-based outlook, he warned that markets don’t essentially match previous patterns completely.

Previous Bitcoin’s actions have generally deviated from expectations, even when the info confirmed excessive ranges of belief.

However, he argues that the mannequin offers a “clear, probability-based image” of the place Bitcoin’s worth is almost certainly to maneuver within the quick time period.

Market sentiment is leaning towards pressure

Peterson’s prediction got here amid the final optimism of market sentiment over Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency analysts similar to Jere and Matthew Highland have additionally been cooperating with bullish outlook in latest days, highlighting Bitcoin’s profitable retest at its all-time highs, suggesting that momentum might push costs even additional.

Earlier this week, Jerre posted, “It is undoubtedly over for the bears. Get it up much more,” and Highland identified that “the strain is rising.”

Nevertheless, not all market voices are calling for a speedy rise instantly.

Aldi, an analyst identified for his technical commentary, famous that Bitcoin usually experiences a decline of round 5% within the quick time period after hitting a report excessive.

Aldi mentioned these strikes are normally adopted by durations of instability and price-hardening, and this sample might repeat once more earlier than the rise continues.

$BTC After reaching a brand new ATH, I prefer to dump ~5%, normally adopted by a interval of chop and integration.

The remainder of the market is more likely to agree. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc

— Aldi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025

Technical outlook confirms the potential for Bitcoin rise

Technical indicators additionally appear to assist bullish bias within the quick time period.

Market evaluation reveals that Bitcoin’s fundamental assist degree is $120,899, with the speedy resistance line of $124,148 and the upper goal is $126,021.

The cryptocurrency is at the moment buying and selling above all main index shifting averages (10, 20, 50, 100, 200-day EMA), displaying robust upward momentum.

The forecast reveals that Bitcoin might attain round $121,633 inside days, whereas the long-term forecast units an formidable value goal of $221,485 in 2025.