JPMorgan executives indicated on January 12 that securities regulators are equally prone to approve or disapprove the Spot Ethereum ETF within the coming months.

JP Morgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou informed The Block:

“In our opinion, for the[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]to approve a Spot Ethereum ETF in Might, it might want to classify Ethereum as a commodity (much like Bitcoin) moderately than a safety. …This isn’t a given, and I don’t suppose so.” There may be in all probability not more than a 50% probability that the SEC will classify Ethereum as a commodity by Might. ”

He additional said that the SEC “nonetheless letting it know Proceed to think about all different cryptocurrencies apart from Bitcoin as securities. ”

Panigirtzoglou’s feedback allude to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s January 11 assertion relating to the approval of Spot Bitcoin Change Traded Merchandise (ETPs).

Gensler stated the newest approval solely issues ETPs that maintain Bitcoin (BTC) and identifies Bitcoin as a non-security commodity. Gensler added that the approval doesn’t characterize the SEC's opinion on the securities standing of different crypto belongings. He additionally argued that as a result of “the overwhelming majority of crypto belongings are funding contracts,” they fall below federal securities legal guidelines.

Different sources predict the chance of approval to be as much as 70%

Regardless of the low prospects for Panigirtzoglou’s approval, some sources have made spot approval of the Ethereum ETF extra seemingly sooner or later. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimates there’s a 70% probability of such approval by Might.

Certainly one of Polymarket’s prediction markets suggests a 57% probability of approval for the Ethereum ETF by Might thirty first. These odds are primarily based on bets on cryptocurrencies valued at $15,000 or extra, and never on a person's private stance.

The forecast is primarily targeted on Might, because the SEC has till Might twenty third to determine on the Spot Ethereum ETF utility from VanEck. Different candidates, together with BlackRock, Constancy, VanEck, ARK Make investments, and Invesco Galaxy, have additionally utilized for the Spot Ethereum ETF, however the determination deadline is late. .

The SEC authorised quite a lot of ETFs together with Ethereum futures in October 2023, however has not but authorised a spot Ethereum ETF.

The submit JP Morgan analysts predict a 50% probability of Spot Ethereum ETF showing first on Crypto Slate in Might.