Home Monero Crypto Market Update: Close but no Cigar (Bitcoin, Monero & Tron Price Analysis)

Crypto Market Update: Close but no Cigar (Bitcoin, Monero & Tron Price Analysis)

13 min read

Yesterday the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap went from $217,7B to $221,9B but as you can see from the global chart below the evaluation has retraced back to the levels from which the up move was made.

  • Market Cap: $218,720,169,602
  • 24h Vol: $11,321,223,572
  • BTC Dominance: 52.4%

As you can see the evaluation is in a descending channel and as the interaction with its resistance ended as a rejection it is now heading towards its support level which would be around $215B.


There are some news headlines worth mentioning today but they are nevertheless unimportant to the market sentiment. The headlines are mostly regarding regulation or legality of the cryptocurrency space.

Swiss Financial Watchdog Issues Country’s First Crypto Asset Management License

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has issued the country’s first cryptocurrency asset management license to a crypto investment fund, Swiss-centered media outlet Swissinfo reports today, Oct. 9.

Ukrainian Ministry of Finance Creates Working Group to Develop Crypto Taxation

The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance is creating a working group to discuss and develop a legal framework for crypto taxation, according to an Oct. 8 announcement on the ministry’s official website.

EU Markets Regulator Examines ICOs to Determine Regulations

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has announced it is examining Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) to determine how they should be regulated, Reuters reported Oct. 8.

Japan’s GMO Internet to Launch Yen-Pegged Stablecoin in 2019

Japanese internet conglomerate GMO Internet Co. Ltd confirmed plans to release a cryptographic stablecoin, Cointelegraph Japan reports Tuesday, Oct. 9, pegged to the Japanese yen.

UAE Securities Regulator to Introduce ICOs for Capital Markets in 2019

The United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s national securities regulator plans to introduce Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) for capital markets in 2019, Reuters reported Oct. 8.

It looks like all over the world, financial institutions and governmental bodies are working on creating legal frameworks for mainstream cryptocurrency adoption and usage while the market is in the slump. This may serve to be great because until the market matures we cannot have another bull run and this institutional interest may cause it.

Bitcoin Price BTC/USD

From yesterday’s high at $6700 the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 1.21% and is currently trading at $6621.

Click to Enlarge Chart

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price started to breakout from both the symmetrical triangle and the descending triangle’s resistance but has now retraced back inside the territory of the second one potentially heading back to retest the symmetrical one’s resistance before it can increase further and start an uptrend. It is more likely that this would end as a fake-out because there just anything bullish on this chart at the moment – the price action has been in range from the begging of September and this small increase isn’t indicative of anything. If anything for now we can say that a lower high was made but a higher low was formed as well which is why we can say that the price is still inside of the symmetrical triangle struggling to maintain the direction.

I wouldn’t consider that the price has started a trend until the price went’s above $6876 for the bullish trajectory and below $6000 for a bearish trajectory.

Market sentiment 

The technical indicators on the hourly chart are signaling a sell.

Pivot points 

S3 5953.4 
S2 6270.2 
S1 6432.7 
P 6587.1 
R1 6749.6 
R2 6903.9 
R3 7220.8

Monero Price XMR/USD

From yesterday’s high at $115.93 the price of Monero has fallen by 1.85% as its currently trading at $113.7.

Click to Enlarge Chart

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price action is still inside of the descending triangle as the price was rejected by its resistance like once again.  Currently the price is hovering on the minor horizontal support level as its looking for support, which is why another drop to the triangle’s support line around $111.8 level would be a likely scenario, after which I would expect a breakout from the triangle on the downside which is usually the case with the descending triangles.

Zooming out to the 4-hour chart I see a different scenario. Because the price action escaped the falling wedge pattern with an ascending channel, we might see a breakout from the upside off of the minor descending triangle in which case the price could go up to the horizontal resistance level intersection with the ascending channels resistance around $148 but after that I would still expect to see a lower low.

Click to Enlarge Chart

Market sentiment 

Hourly chart technical are signaling a sell with moving averages signaling a strong one.

Pivot points 

S3 96.360 
S2 105.970 
S1 110.550 
P 115.580 
R1 120.160 
R2 125.190 
R3 134.800

Tron Price TRX/BTC

From yesterday’s high at 425 Satoshi the price of Tron has decreased by 8.52% as its currently trading at around 328 Satoshi.

Click to Enlarge Chart

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price went above the horizontal resistance level and has now retraced back to it for a retest of support and judging by the wick on the last red candle that interacted with it the buyers are there.

Zooming out to the 4-hour chart you can see that I have labeled this as a correction in the opposite direction and as the wave Z ended on the upside, now a decline is to be expected according to Elliott Wave Principles. You can also see the importance of the horizontal level which is why if the price finds support here then the likelihood of the price continuing it’s upward trajectory increases. If the price falls below it once again then I would be expecting a breakout from the downside and a trend continuation.

Click to Enlarge Chart

Market sentiment 

Tron is in the sell zone.

Pivot points 

S3 0.00000270 
S2 0.00000311 
S1 0.00000336 
P 0.00000352 
R1 0.00000377 
R2 0.00000393 
R3 0.00000434


With the evaluation on the global chart failing to exceed the prior high and the chart of the major cryptos analyzed in today’s post showing signs of weaknesses some minor decrease is expected. This is the crucial point for the cryptocurrency market as soon we are going to have an indication of the next trend. Ultimately I am expecting lower lows but we may see a strong upswing at first. It is problematic to call it out right on time but this is what I have been saying for a while now.

If you remember the chart below this was from my analysis way back in which I said that the price of Bitcoin could go up to $11,000 before it drops to $3000.

Bitcoin Correction Scenario

Click to Enlarge Chart

So this upswing looks more likely the more time passes by and we have new price data, but I wasn’t expecting it before a lower to to maybe 5200$ or so before that recovery was made. If that doesn’t happen and the price recovers by almost a half fold from the current levels than a likelihood of the target for the decrease after increases.

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