• Portuguese regulators have ordered Polymarket to cease and cease unlawful political playing.
• Greater than 4 million euros had flowed into the election market earlier than the outcomes have been in, bringing the president’s whole buying and selling quantity to greater than 110 million euros.
• Voting odds modified earlier than the outcomes have been launched to coincide with the early publication of exit ballot predictions.

Portugal’s playing regulator has ordered cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polimarket to stop operations and face blocking within the nation after its actions associated to the Portuguese presidential election got here beneath regulatory scrutiny and raised questions in regards to the timing of large-scale betting flows.

Renascenca stories that the Jogos Regulatory Authority (SRIJ) has dominated that Polimarket is working illegally in Portugal as a result of it’s unlicensed and nationwide regulation prohibits betting on political occasions. The regulator mentioned it notified the platform on Friday and gave it 48 hours to cease operations concentrating on customers in Portugal. As of Monday, the positioning remained accessible, prompting SRIJ to organize a network-level shutdown.

Regulators cite authorized prohibitions

In its response to Renascença, SRIJ mentioned it had turn into conscious of Polymarket’s existence “very just lately” and categorised its actions as unlawful beneath Portuguese regulation. The regulator mentioned the platform is just not licensed to supply on-line betting providers in Portugal and betting on political occasions, whether or not home or overseas, is expressly prohibited.

The authority added that its powers are restricted to supervising licensed operators and informing unlicensed platforms to voluntarily stop operations in Portugal. In consequence, SRIJ mentioned there is no such thing as a assure that Portuguese customers will be capable to recuperate funds positioned on the platform if entry is blocked.

A surge in pre-result betting

All eyes have been on Polymarket’s presidential election market, with buying and selling surging within the hours earlier than the official outcomes have been introduced. Renacensa reported that simply earlier than the outcomes have been printed, greater than 4 million euros had been invested within the Portuguese Presidential Market, and the whole quantity of transactions throughout associated markets exceeded 110 million euros.

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Market odds modified quickly. Antonio José Seguro’s predicted likelihood was about 60% early within the day, however by 6pm, an hour earlier than voting closed, it had risen to about 95%, and by the point the prediction was revealed, it was nearly sure. Greater than €5 million was traded on a number of election-related markets within the greater than two hours earlier than the primary outcomes have been introduced to the general public.

Timing of exit polls and market actions

The timing of those strikes coincided with the discharge of preliminary exit ballot forecasts round 6 p.m., based on Renascensa. These predictions, which weren’t aired till 8 p.m., reportedly indicated a sure victory for Mr. Seguro and have been shared amongst pollsters and tv journalists forward of the official announcement.

By the point the primary outcomes have been printed, the market value of Polymarket had already converged to the ultimate outcomes. Apart from confirming the platform’s lack of authorization and its intention to dam entry in Portugal, SRIJ didn’t touch upon whether or not it was investigating buying and selling patterns.

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