Home Ripple The Ripple from Lake Resources: Biden delivers decade-long EV boost; battery metals go mainstream; lithium prices jump as supply fears intensify

The Ripple from Lake Resources: Biden delivers decade-long EV boost; battery metals go mainstream; lithium prices jump as supply fears intensify

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Welcome to Lake Sources’ investor e-newsletter.

On this September 7, 2021 problem:

  • Biden pledge delivers decade-long EV enhance
  • Battery metals go mainstream as megafactories surge
  • Lithium costs leap as provide worries intensify
  • New Lake analysis, media and occasions for traders


Biden pledge delivers decade-long EV enhance

‘One of many largest modifications within the automobile enterprise within the final 100-plus years.’

That is how Barron’s described U.S. President Joe Biden’s historic pledge to make half of all new autos offered in 2030 zero-emission autos, together with battery-electric, plug-in hybrid electrical or gasoline cell electrical autos.

The president’s executive order additionally goals to tighten gasoline effectivity and emissions requirements, lowering gasoline demand and air pollution, together with decreasing greenhouse gases.

The August 5 assertion additionally vowed to ‘strengthen American management in clear automobiles and vehicles by accelerating innovation and manufacturing within the auto sector, bolstering the auto sector home provide chain, and rising auto jobs.’

Noting that the U.S. market share for EVs is simply a 3rd of China’s, the president additionally introduced plans to put money into a nationwide community of EV charging stations, along with providing shopper incentives and financing funding in clear applied sciences.

The assertion mentioned U.S. automakers Ford, Common Motors (GM) and Chrysler guardian Stellantis had additionally pledged to succeed in a purpose of 40 to 50 per cent U.S. EV gross sales by 2030.

‘The largest factor that is taking place right here is there is a realisation, on the a part of each labour and enterprise now, that that is the longer term. We will not sit by,’ Biden told reporters on the White Home.

Different automakers have additionally backed the EV gross sales goal, together with South Korea’s Hyundai and Japan’s Nissan. Toyota Motor described the purpose as ‘nice for the setting’ and mentioned it might ‘do our half.’

Biden has sought US$174 billion (A$237 billion) in authorities spending to stimulate EVs, together with US$100 billion in shopper incentives, whereas a Senate infrastructure invoice contains US$7.5 billion for EV charging stations.

The EV drive is predicted to require billions of {dollars} in funding, from automakers to battery crops and in addition uncooked supplies.

At the moment there are an estimated 2 million EVs on U.S. roads and solely 2 per cent of all automobiles offered final yr have been electrical.

Nonetheless, GM has already introduced plans to speculate US$35 billion in EV improvement between 2020 and 2025, whereas Ford has mentioned it might spend greater than US$30 billion on EVs by 2030. Stellantis, the world’s fourth-biggest automaker, plans to speculate greater than US$35 billion by way of 2025 on electrifying its line-up.

For the U.S. business as an entire, producing 8 million EVs – about half of U.S. annual mild automobile gross sales – would require an estimated US$64 billion of funding, Barron’s estimates.

There are additionally additional prices in constructing automotive capability, estimated by Barron’s at US$22 billion, along with one other US$10 billion in charging stations.

‘That is virtually [US]$100 billion in spending over the following 9 years – within the U.S. alone – to have the capability to construct sufficient automobiles and batteries to succeed in Biden’s purpose and to maintain the infrastructure to allow their adoption,’ the report mentioned.

One other estimate by consultancy AlixPartners suggests investments in EVs will attain some US$330 billion by 2025, globally.

13-fold lithium demand rise

For rising lithium suppliers similar to Lake Sources, the brand new EV investments imply one more enhance to demand for battery-quality lithium.

‘If the U.S. is making 8 million EVs and the remainder of the world is doing related issues, then the world might want to mine an incremental 5 million tonnes of lithium a yr. It is a large 13-fold enhance for the business,’ Barron’s famous.

‘Meaning demand progress so far as the attention can see,’ it added.

An estimated 40 billion lithium-ion battery cells are required for america by 2030 and doubtlessly 225 billion globally, not together with these required for energy storage.

‘It is a large transition, one which has been enabled by falling battery prices and success from the likes of Tesla. However taking it mainstream would require a whole bunch of billions of {dollars},’ the report concluded.

Automotive engineer and commentator Sandy Munro welcomed the announcement, saying he ‘thanked the president for stepping as much as the plate to attempt to save the automotive firms right here in america.’

Lake’s Managing Director, Steve Promnitz mentioned the Biden administration’s EV plans would guarantee a 3rd leg of demand for the battery metals sector.

‘China has led the cost into EVs and now Europe and america are racing to catch up. The end result is obvious: EVs at the moment are the legislated automobile of the twenty first century and there isn’t any going again,’ Mr Promnitz mentioned.

‘Your complete battery metals sector, and notably lithium miners, now have an infinite problem to make sure the EV and battery storage business will get the supplies it wants to attain this clear vitality transformation.

‘Lake’s sustainable, direct extraction course of and its skill to scale up its initiatives to satisfy demand provides us huge leverage as we work to speed up our personal plans for near-term manufacturing of battery-quality lithium.

‘Importantly too, Lake affords an unbiased provide supply amid rising competitors for battery-quality product, giving potential patrons a brand new supply of excessive grade lithium at a time when safety of provide is paramount.’


Battery metals go mainstream as megafactories surge

Battery metals have gone mainstream. That a lot is apparent when two of the world’s largest miners, BHP and Rio Tinto, each announce main investments within the sector in speedy succession.

On July 22, BHP hit the headlines when it introduced the signing of a nickel provide settlement with Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. The Australian miner said it might provide Tesla with nickel from Western Australia, with each firms additionally searching for to ‘collaborate on methods to make the battery provide chain extra sustainable.’

BHP’s transfer adopted Musk’s remark final yr, when the Tesla founder mentioned there was a ‘large contract’ awaiting an organization able to mining nickel effectively and in an environmentally sustainable method.

Simply 5 days after BHP’s announcement, Rio Tinto revealed plans to speculate US$2.4 billion (A$3.2 billion) in its Jadar lithium-borates challenge in Serbia, one of many world’s largest greenfield lithium initiatives.

According to the miner, the challenge will ‘scale up Rio Tinto’s publicity to battery metals and display the corporate’s dedication to investing capital in a disciplined method to additional strengthen its portfolio for the worldwide vitality transition.’

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) managing director, Simon Moores tweeted that ‘when Rio Tinto enters a brand new promote it does so to be primary or quantity two. I can not see lithium being any totally different. Count on M&A on prime of this.’

Moores added: ‘It marks the primary time massive outdoors cash from a single miner or chemical maker has entered lithium and invested in a completely new supply.

‘Whereas expectation is that Rio Tinto will produce lithium carbonate at a run price of 58,000 tonnes at full manufacturing, the technique is often extra aggressive as soon as proof of manufacturing is achieved and the product is accepted by battery makers.’

Megafactory surge

If the strikes by the mining majors aren’t enough to get the world’s consideration, then the increasing variety of battery ‘megafactories’ ought to actually assist.

BMI’s Moores has famous that the variety of lithium-ion battery megafactories (or gigafactories) has surged from simply 5 in 2015 to 225 crops within the pipeline by 2025, with 155 anticipated to be working by the top of 2021. This equates to 4,100 GWh of lithium-ion battery cell capability by 2030, in comparison with simply 70 GWh in 2015.

He pointed to Volkswagen Group’s plan to construct six battery megafactories in Europe and strikes by the Biden administration to assist home EV and battery manufacturing.

Volkswagen’s Herbert Diess and U.S. President Joe Biden are solely the ‘second and third folks to seem on the duvet of the Benchmark Quarterly journal after Elon Musk,’ he wrote.

‘All three can each take some credit score for making these battery megafactories or gigafactories mainstream and constructing the platform expertise to the vitality storage revolution.’

He concluded: ‘The battery arms race development was set in movement in 2015, however we will now comfortably say: ‘the megafactories are mainstream.”

Transferring mainstream: Benchmark’s Quarterly journal covers chart the rise of the megafactories

The rise of the megafactories is exhibiting no indicators of slowing, with French automaker Renault asserting plans to develop a 9 GWh megafactory in France, whereas Japanese automaker Nissan and Envision AESC have outlined a 25 GWh battery megafactory in Sunderland, UK. Volvo Automobile and Northvolt have additionally unveiled plans to construct a brand new megafactory on the continent, because the variety of European crops continues to rise.

To not be outdone, on August 5, Ganfeng Lithium, the world’s largest lithium firm by market worth, mentioned its subsidiary would make investments 8.4 billion yuan (A$1.8 billion) in two initiatives to make ‘new-type’ lithium batteries. The Chinese language firm has spent some US$900 million on lithium belongings at dwelling and overseas in 2021, together with plans to determine a battery plant in Argentina, Reuters famous.

Lake’s Managing Director, Steve Promnitz commented: ‘The strikes by main miners and world automakers clearly display this development is now unstoppable. EVs are right here to remain and lithium and different battery metals at the moment are extremely prized belongings, each geostrategically and economically.

‘For rising producers similar to Lake, the timing could not be higher as we work to develop our clear lithium initiatives to assist fulfill the growing demand for sustainably sourced, battery-quality lithium.’


Lithium costs leap as provide worries intensify

Diggers & Sellers returned to Kalgoorlie, however this yr’s occasion had a considerably totally different theme. As a substitute of copper and gold, lithium grabbed centre stage as Western Australian miners celebrated a surge in costs.

Amongst these benefitting, Pilbara Minerals reported that the primary on-line public sale of its spodumene focus delivered ‘excellent success.’

Following 62 on-line bids, the successful bidder paid US$1,250 per dry metric tonne (dmt) (FOB) for 10,000 dmt of its 5.5% focus, round thrice the quantity it was receiving a yr earlier, in accordance with the corporate.

‘There’s a real scarcity, that I’m sure about,’ Pilbara’s managing director Ken Brinsden told the conference.

‘The chemical conversion business is now caught, they’ve constructed plenty of capability irrespective of the underlying uncooked supplies provide base. Because of this, the miners are going to draw extra margin.’

Business analyst BMI’s newest costs proof the development, with its lithium index as at September 7 exhibiting a 115.7% enhance year-on-year (yoy). Lithium carbonate has gained practically 135% and hydroxide 89% yoy amid a broad-based pricing restoration.

On September 3, Fastmarkets was reporting battery-grade lithium carbonate costs of as much as US$20,123 per tonne, whereas S&P World Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at 135,000 yuan per metric tonne (US$20,910) and battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 135,500 yuan per metric tonne.

‘Lithium costs have risen sharply since February and we don’t consider it’s short-term,’ Credit score Suisse analysis analyst Matthew Hope advised the Australian Monetary Evaluation.

‘The lithium provide glut has ended and the market is now tightening as the electrical automobile revolution accelerates, [meaning] provide might want to stretch to satisfy demand.’

Credit score Suisse expects demand to triple from 2020 ranges by 2025, requiring a 50 per cent enhance in provide from new and unapproved initiatives.

‘The mines and salt lakes at the moment producing, along with these underneath development, and idle operations that may be restarted, are inadequate to satisfy demand and can see rising deficits,’ Mr Hope mentioned.

The demand is being pushed by the accelerating progress of ‘new vitality autos’ (NEVs), predominantly electrical automobiles powered by lithium-ion batteries. The funding financial institution sees the worldwide market share of NEVs reaching 34 per cent by 2025, up from 11 per cent this yr, with a lot of the demand coming from Europe.

Europe’s NEV share is projected to succeed in 97% by 2030, adopted by Japan at 79%, China at 67% and North America at 59%.

This has been aided by regulatory strikes, with European nations asserting formidable targets for the mass adoption of emission-free autos, along with the aforementioned strikes by the Biden administration.

Supply: Australian Monetary Evaluation, July 14, 2021

Provide deficit

Analysts at Deutsche Financial institution have projected a widening lithium provide deficit, pushed by the surge in EV gross sales and provide dangers similar to growing ESG scrutiny. The German financial institution raised its medium and long-term lithium demand forecast by round 9% to 1.1 million tonnes LCE by 2025 and 1.95Mt by 2030. It expects 2025 provide of 947,000t.

Equally, BMI has flagged a ‘nice uncooked materials disconnect’ with anticipated lithium provide of 1.5 million tonnes (lithium carbonate equal, or LCE) by 2030 being far in need of estimated demand of two.4mt.

The sharemarket has responded accordingly, with latest worth good points reflecting growing confidence in Lake’s clear lithium improvement course of primarily based on sustainable direct extraction expertise.

12-month share worth efficiency of choose lithium miners (supply: Terra Studio, August 4)

Notably too, Fitch Options has projected the rise of a ‘inexperienced premium’ amid heightened demand for extra environmentally pleasant assets from downstream gamers, ‘as they goal to enhance their provide chain transparency and sustainability.’

‘Probably the most sustainable lithium provide will fetch increased costs amid the battery provide chain ESG race,’ the credit standing company’s commodities analysts mentioned in a June 17 presentation.

Put merely, there may be going to be a pricing premium on ESG-friendly lithium provide, along with an growing want for brand spanking new initiatives. Firms similar to Lake that mix each choices are properly positioned to profit,’ Lake’s Mr Promnitz mentioned.

‘We stay up for advancing our talks with financiers and potential improvement companions to develop our scalable lithium assets, situated within the confirmed working setting of the ‘Lithium Triangle’.’


New Lake analysis, media and occasions for traders

Lake has stayed within the highlight amongst traders and media with a lot of recent presentations capturing worldwide consideration.

Amongst latest occasions, Managing Director Steve Promnitz spoke at Purple Cloud’s ‘Green Energy Conference: EVs are made of these‘ on July 13, placing Lake within the highlight amongst North American traders. This was adopted by displays to Australian traders on the Noosa Mining & Exploration Investor Conference on July 16 and at Sharecafe’s ‘Hidden Gems‘ webinar on July 30.

Mr Promnitz has additionally been featured in a variety of enterprise and business publications (see here for a number of the latest protection) along with conducting numerous video interviews.

Keep tuned for particulars of extra upcoming displays by Lake, together with on the 121 Mining Funding, BMI and Noosa occasions scheduled for later in 2021.

New research has additionally been revealed on Lake, together with by Roth Capital and Lodge Companions, with each upgrading their worth targets following Lake’s success in securing funding for its Kachi Challenge.

‘With cleaner lithium, cleaner expertise, a small environmental footprint and a transparent pathway to manufacturing, Lake has all the precise components for fulfillment,’ Mr Promnitz mentioned.

‘We stay up for delivering extra milestones for traders as we progress in the direction of the beginning of manufacturing in 2024, at a time when new lithium provide might be essential to assist decarbonise the world and energy the EV revolution.’

For extra on Lake’s plans, please subscribe to our e-news via this link or observe us on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn for the newest updates and business data.


Yours sincerely

Steve Promnitz
Managing Director
Lake Sources

E-mail: hey@lakeresources.com.au
Cellphone: +61 2 9299 9690

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Lake Sources NL revealed this content material on 07 September 2021 and is solely chargeable for the knowledge contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 07 September 2021 11:01:02 UTC.

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