Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset analysis at VanEck, acknowledged hypothesis that the agency's Solana Spot ETF proposal is a wager on Donald Trump successful the US presidential election.
VanEck's software deadline is about for March 2025, effectively past the aftermath of November's US presidential election.
Siegel responded merely:
“I can affirm that.”
The analysts mentioned the ETFs have a “close to zero” probability of approval if the Democrats win and Joe Biden takes workplace, and a “higher probability however no assure” if Trump wins the election. Trump is prone to appoint a brand new SEC chairman to exchange present SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
Monitor Share
One other difficulty that might stand in the best way of a Solana ETF is the shortage of a futures market at CME, which consultants imagine was a key consider Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs successful regulatory approval.
In its lawsuit towards the SEC, Grayscale argued that the oversight sharing agreements that apply to CME Bitcoin futures are replicable for its proposed spot ETF and are adequate to detect and stop fraudulent exercise.
The corporate argued that the SEC failed to offer an affordable clarification for treating a spot Bitcoin ETF otherwise from a futures ETF with respect to the oversight sharing settlement.
The case basically revolved round whether or not the SEC was justified in requiring a monitoring sharing settlement particularly for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and whether or not the SEC utilized its requirements persistently throughout various kinds of Bitcoin-related ETFs.
With the SEC having authorised Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, Siegel believes VanEck is not going to must reveal Solana’s CME futures market so as to get an ETF.
“Surveillance sharing agreements with spot cryptocurrency exchanges might get rid of the necessity for CME futures.”
Bloomberg agrees SSA is sufficient
Bloomberg analysts agreed that the SSA “must be sufficient,” however concluded that VanEck's strategy “will solely work if the SEC will get new management and Congress actually passes the invoice.”
Analysts famous that previous ETF filings, notably BlackRock's June 2023 spot bitcoin ETF submitting, included a Supervision Sharing Settlement (SSA) with Coinbase, which led different corporations to implement related provisions. Nevertheless, the analysts added that these agreements in the end proved pointless.
Analysts additionally mentioned the SEC's ongoing securities lawsuits towards a number of exchanges, together with Coinbase and Kraken, are additionally complicating SSAs between exchanges and ETF issuers.
